Forecasting Dengue – New Study Show About Forecasting Dengue -In the study, scientists at the Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun, used data mining tools to analyse the weather parameters before and during dengue outbreaks in Delhi.

Using two different statistical approaches –

  1. Multivariate regression
  2. Naive Bayes approach

They attempted to estimate how weather conditions may influence, intensify or lead to a more severe outbreak and which parameters are strongly correlated with this metric.

Forecasting Dengue - New Study Show About Forecasting Dengue

Forecasting Dengue – New Study Show About Forecasting Dengue

What is the study about?

  • Study focuses on changes in a factor called extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the dengue virus, by taking
    into account daily and monthly means temperatures different climatic zones.
  • The EIP is the time taken for incubation of the virus in the mosquito.
  • During this period, after the mosquito draws blood that is rich in viruses, it escapes the gut and passes through
    the mosquito’s body and reaches its salivary glands.
  • Once this happens, the mosquito is infectious and capable of transmitting the virus to a human host.

What are the outcomes of the study?

  • Climatic conditions play an important role in EIP.
  • Lower temperatures (17-18°C) result in longer EIPs thereby leading to decreased virus transmission.
  • From 17 to 30°C, dengue transmission increases fourfold, feeding increases because of the enhanced
    metabolism of the mosquito, leading to shorter EIPs.
  • A further increase in temperature beyond 35°C is detrimental to the mosquito’s survival.
  • There is a strong correlation between rainfall and dengue numbers, they propose an increase in breeding
    grounds for mosquitoes.
  • Given its close link with both temperature and rainfall, it is possible to forecast the outbreak of dengue.

How it helps in Disease control?

  • This climate-based dengue forecasting model could help health authorities assess the disease intensity in a
    geographic region.
  • Based on this authorities can plan disease-control operations well in advance and optimise the use of
    resources meticulously.
  • Factors such as population density and migration also need to be included for future risk assessment studies.
  • This will help in mitigating the disease and strategic disease control.
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